Sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific Ocean have risen, hurricane activity in the Atlantic is down, record temperatures have been broken, and above average rainfall has spanned across Southern California. This weather behavior is leading scientists to believe that we may experience a moderate-to-strong El Niño this winter, perhaps being the stronger experienced, comparable to the one that hit us hard back in 1997-1998. The biggest indicators that El Niño may happen this year is the 2015 record breaking temperatures, making it one of the hottest years on record, and the rising sea surface temperatures which typically happens every 2-7 years.

Rising SeaTemperatures 1997 vs. 2015 Rising sea surface temperatures (red) are indicators that a strong El Niño may be on its way. This image compares sea surface temperatures from the 1997 El Niño to temperatures this past July. Image: NOAA

If we experience a moderate-to-strong El Niño this upcoming winter, we can expect drastic weather changes varying from area to area across the country. Based on past El Niño weather patterns, the Southern United States from California to the Carolinas, and some areas of the East Coast may be hit with wetter than average weather, while parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Northwest, and Northern Rockies may experience drier than average weather. Cooler temperatures may also be seen in the Southwest United States and the Gulf Coast, while the Northwest through the Northeast may experience warmer temperatures.

Typical precipitation experience during a moderate-to-strong El Niño. Image: NOAA

 

Typical temperatures during a moderate-to-strong El Niño. Image: NOAA

If we are hit with a strong El Niño this winter, the predicted heavy rainfall and precipitation may offer a hint of relief for drought-stricken California. As of now, the National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) is predicting there is an 80% chance that El Niño will last into the early spring, and over a 90% chance it will last through this winter.